| | Breaking down PSU's bowl scenariosNovember 10, 2008 - Cory GigerWhere will Penn State go bowling? It's still complex, but here's a breakdown: ROSE BOWL Likely opponent: USC or Oregon State This part is simple. If Penn State beats Indiana and Michigan State, the Lions will play in the Rose Bowl on Jan. 1 against the Pac-10 champion. Penn State would finish with one loss in the Big Ten and could tie Ohio State for the regular-season championship. The Lions have the tiebreaker because they beat the Buckeyes, so they would go to the Rose Bowl. One disappointing component of this scenario is the matchup in Pasadena could be PSU vs. Oregon State in a rematch of the Lions' 45-14 win in week two. No one wants to see this rematch, but the Beavers have just one loss in the Pac-10 and own all tiebreakers against USC. Oregon State has home games with California and Oregon and a trip to Arizona left. Hopefully they'll lose one of those games, which would set up a PSU vs. USC showdown. -------------------------------- BCS AT-LARGE BOWL BID Likely opponents: Fiesta vs. Texas, Oklahoma or Texas Tech; Sugar vs. Alabama or Florida; Orange vs. ACC champion (race is wide open) Penn State is No. 8 in the BCS. Teams that finish in the top 14 are eligible for at-large consideration. No conference can have more than two teams in BCS games, so the Big 12 and SEC can't load up and take all the spots. Even if PSU loses to Michigan State, the Lions could remain in the top 14. Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl, and the BCS would have to decide between the Lions and Spartans as an at-large team. Which team is sexier would come into play. The Spartans would have an argument because they beat PSU, but it would be very tough for a bowl game to bypass Penn State because of its large traveling fan base and the possibility it could be Joe Paterno's last game. Where would PSU go in this scenario? That may depend on Oregon State, too. The Fiesta Bowl has the first at-large pick, and if the Beavers go to the Rose Bowl, USC would be a sexy choice for the Fiesta Bowl. The Big 12 champion is tied into the Fiesta, but either Texas Tech or Texas likely will play in the national championship game. If the Fiesta wants to maintain its tie with the Big 12, it may select Texas (if not in title game), Oklahoma or Texas Tech. The Fiesta Bowl doesn't have to stay in the Big 12, but it would make sense given regional ties. If Oregon State loses and USC goes to the Rose Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl may try to set up a cross-country battle between the Big 12 team and Penn State. If PSU isn't chosen for the Fiesta Bowl, the Sugar Bowl has the next choice and Orange Bowl the last. The Sugar Bowl gets the SEC champion, but either Alabama or Florida likely will play in the BCS championship. The other one will go to the Sugar Bowl, possibly against Penn State. Either would be a sexy matchup. The Orange Bowl would be the least-appealing BCS matchup because the ACC is weak. The possible opponents there include Virginia Tech, Florida State, North Carolina and Wake Forest. --------------------------------- CAPITAL ONE BOWL Likely opponent: Georgia If PSU loses to Michigan State, Ohio State would go to the Rose Bowl. If the BCS picks the Spartans over the Lions as an at-large team, Penn State would end up in the Capital One Bowl against the third-place team from the SEC. Article CommentsNo comments posted for this article. Post a Comment | |
