District 6 (and 5) playoff scenarios

Phew ... two blogs in the same day. For those of you interested in finding out which recruiting prospects will be at Saturday's Michigan/Penn State game, look down one blog.

I usually like to go into detail with the high school football playoff scenarios in the newspaper each of the two weeks before the playoffs, but space constraints and other considerations have forced me to move that online, at least this week.

There are only two weeks left for Class A teams hoping to qualify for the postseason in both District 6 and District 5.

There's been a change with how District 6 is doing its playoffs this year. The top 16 teams in Class A will qualify. Unlike past seasons, when there was a four-win minumum to qualify, it doesn't matter whether the 16th team has three wins or the 17th has six. Sixteen teams qualify.

Some of those teams that qualify may choose not to enter. If that happens, the bracket will include fewer than the full 16 teams, because the next teams in the rankings won't be given the option of taking the place of teams that don't enter.

Entering this weekend's action, the rankings stood in this order: Bishop McCort, Purchase Line, Portage, Bellwood-Antis,. Moshannon Valley, Mount Union, Laurel Valley, Penns Manor, Bishop Carroll, Bishop Guilfoyle, Northern Cambria, Blairsville, Homer-Center, Blacklick Valley, Conemaugh Valley, Claysburg-Kimmel, Glendale and Southern Huntingdon.

That's actually 17 teams, because Claysburg, Glendale and Southern are all tied for 15th with 320 points. That will definitely change tonight, because Glendale and Claysburg play each other.

Conemaugh Valley has already informed District 6 football chairman Vince Nedimyer that it will not participate in the playoffs, figuring it will have to play one of the top four seeds. The Blue Jays only have 19 kids on the roster and were crushed by Portage last week.

Glendale has decided to only enter if it is above .500. The Vikings are 3-4 with games remaining at Claysburg and Tussey Mountain. The Glendale/Tussey game next week could be decisive for both teams' playoff hopes, as Tussey needs to win its last two to qualify in District 5.

Blairsville is another school that has bypassed the playoffs in the past if it wasn't .500. The Bobcats need to beat either United or Laurel Valley at home to reach five wins.

It's not out of the question that United or Juniata Valley could sneak into the last couple of slots, either, although the odds are stacked against Valley, which has to play Bellwood tonight, and out of favor for United.

There will probably be quite a bit of moving and shaking in the group before all the dust clears. For instance, Bellwood and Mount Union play next week. The winner will get a lot of points, while the loser stands to drop a spot or two. Penns Manor has already declared its intention to enter the playoffs, but the Comets still have to play Purchase Line and Homer-Center. Carroll hosts Class AA power Forest Hills this week. Guilfoyle travels to Class AAA Johnstown next week.

Only 220 points separate fifth-place Moshannon Valley and 11th-place Northern Cambria. Northern Cambria is only 210 points ahead of Claysburg, Glendale and Southern Huntingdon, and the Colts are just 60 points out of 14th place.

Portage trails Purchase Line by 20 points but is actually in control of its own destiny as far as the second seed goes. The Mustangs actually would pick up 190 points if they were to win at North Star tonight, while Purchase Line would only gain 150 by beating Penns Manor. A win over Berlin next week would net Portage at least another 130 points, while Purchase Line would probably get only 100 by beating Saltsburg.

Teams also get 10 points for every game one of the teams they have defeated has won (e.g. beating a team with six wins is worth 60 extra points). If Purchase Line were to go undefeated in the Heritage Conference, it would gain another 80 points over these next two weeks. That wouldn't be likely to make up the ground the Dragons would lose on Portage through those teams' actual final two games, though.

If Mount Union wins out over Northern Bedford and Bellwood, the Trojans will secure a top-four seed no matter what the teams ahead of them do.

Bishop McCort doesn't have an easy road to the No. 1 seed, either. The Crushers host Penn Cambria this week -- McCort should win that, but it's not an absolute given -- and travel to Central Cambria in Week 9. The latter game is a toss-up, with McCort perhaps a slight favorite, and, if the Crushers were to lose either of those games, they'd probably be passed by both Purchase Line and Portage.

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District 5 Class A is also coming down to the finish, but its situation is a lot more clear.

Barring an uoset against Williamsburg or Claysburg -- both games at home -- Everett will be the No. 1 seed. With games against Shade and Meyersdale, Windber will probably win out and finish no worse than third.

Conemaugh Township has also achieved the four wins necessary to qualify for the 5-A playoffs and probably will win its final two, against Berlin and Shade, as well.

Where things get interesting is tonight in Loysburg, where Northern Bedford hosts Mount Union. Mount Union looks like the solid favorite, but its a winnable game for the Panthers. Should NBC win, it will end up in no worst than a tie for first with Everett; the Panthers losing at home to West Branch in the regular-season finale is pretty close to inconceivable. Everett would take first on the head-to-head tiebreaker.

The next questions to answer is who ends up fifth and sixth and whether or not the seventh and eighth teams get the four wins they need to make the playoffs, too.

There aren't many givens, here. Meyersdale and Berlin are tied for fifth, but the Red Raiders play Blacklick Valley and Windber, while the Mounties play Conemaugh Township and Portage. It's safe to say neither would be favored in either one of its last two games, although the Meyersdale/Blacklick game should be close.

Tussey Mountain and Rockwood are tied for seventh. Rockwood shoudl win at Hancock, Md., but the Rockets have a tough game at Blacklick next Saturday.

Tussey is a real wild card. The Titans have played with everyone on their schedule except Mount Union but are only 2-5. They need to win tonight at Southern Huntingdon, where they've never fared well, then they have to beat a Glendale team that also figures to have a lot at stake and only lost to Bellwood by seven.

Tussey is capable of winning both of those games, though, if they can just score some points.

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Just a reminder to any high school football fans out there that the Pennsylvania Football News 2008 Resource Guide is still available.

Yes, it includes all the schedules for the seasons that are almost over, but there's tons of information besides that that will keep you paging through it -- all-time district and state champions, records, lists of schools with 500 wins, all-time rosters for the Big 33 and East West games, Pennsylvania players that have played in the NFL, complete AP, UPI and PFN all-state lists and more.

Anyone interested should check it out at http://www.pafootballnews.com/RG_08.htm